i am part of the IDF. and i saw these articles. to all AI watchers, read this.
-----
Professor casts an analytical eye on 'Idol' results
Mike Suchcicki
News Journal Online Editor
Suchcicki looks at pop culture, technology and other stuff in his Technicalities column, which runs Fridays.
Phone: 850-435-8530; fax: 435-8633
Had an interesting phone conversation with my friend Dave the other night. The topic of discussion was "American Idol," which, for two guys of our age, was sad or cute, depending on how you see things.
What was fascinating about the talk was Dave's perspective on the mega-popular competition, which airs Tuesday and Wednesday nights on Fox.
You see, when he isn't in his secret identity as "my friend Dave," he's David S. Bunch, professor of management at the University of California, Davis.
According to Dave - excuse me, Professor Bunch - "Idol" proceedings can be analyzed using marketing concepts. It's tempting to think of the audience-participation process of "Idol" using an election analogy. After all, viewers place toll-free calls to vote for their favorite singer.
In an election, however, each person is allowed to vote only once, whereas viewers can place as many "Idol" vote calls as they want. In this regard, "Idol" is more like a market.
"When viewers cast votes, they are making `purchases'," Bunch says. "The `price' they are paying is in the form of the time and effort they are making to cast the votes (because calls are free)."
In any given week, Bunch says, "we can regard the current selection of ("Idol") competitors as a set of competing `products.' Each week, the product with the lowest `sales' is forced to `go out of business'."
With this in mind, it's possible to examine the products and attempt to predict which one might disappear in any given week, especially if you have an understanding of the concept of market segmentation.
"A market segment is a group of buyers who exhibit very similar preferences and behavior," Bunch says. "The key questions are: How many market segments are there, how many people are in each segment, and what are the preferences and behaviors of each segment." It's also important to note not only which product the segment likes best, but how often they are willing to vote, and if they are motivated to vote for multiple candidates.
With many products, such as the "Idol" finalists, there can be situations where similar products can act as "substitutes," dividing votes across those products.
For instance, the two Hawaiian competitors, Jasmine Trias and Camile Velasco, found themselves in the bottom three one week, having split their market segment. Velasco was voted off. The following week, with her market segment reunited, Trias was not in the bottom three, but the two products of the Goofy White Kid segment, Jon Peter Lewis and John Stevens, were. Lewis got the boot.
This past Wednesday, Stevens was safe, while the three products of the Diva segment, Jennifer Hudson, La Toya London and Fantasia Barrino, were in the bottom three. Hudson was voted off. According to host Ryan Seacrest, the margin between Hudson and Barrino was the slimmest yet.
So, the Professor's market theories are holding up. Next week, if the trend continues, divas Barrino and London should again find their market segment split and themselves in the bottom three.
Bunch warns, however, that as the competition continues, and there are fewer "perfect" substitutes, it will be harder to predict who might drop out next. But he has a feeling that George Huff, who has no obvious substitute, will make it almost all the way to the end.
I'm not sure I understood all the market stuff Dave was telling me, but we did agree on one thing: We were both bummed that Amy Adams was voted off so soon.
Apparently he and I are in the drooling-middle-aged-man market segment.
-----